Danielle To Intensify But Remain Away From Land. But East Of Florida, Other Systems Grow…
BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com
UPDATE: Read the latest as of noon from the National Hurricane Center.
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2022 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — Tropical Storm Danielle will soon become a hurricane with expected peak winds of 100 mph. The storm is expected to remain away from land. Two other systems, however, continue to strengthen east of Florida.
This is the Monday morning Danielle update from the National Hurricane Center, followed by the Tropical Weather Outlook discussing the additional tropical waves that may develop into stronger systems.
Satellite imagery shows that Danielle is continuing to strengthen, with convective bands wrapping around the center and attempts at eye formation. The various satellite intensity estimates have a wide range from 45-77 kt, and the consensus of the estimates is that Danielle is not quite a hurricane yet. Based on these estimates, the initial intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 60 kt.
Danielle continues to move slowly eastward, with the initial motion 100/3 kt. The cyclone is situated within an area of light steering flow on the south side of an omega block mid-level anticyclone, and this pattern is expected to cause Danielle to meander during the next couple of days. After that, the blocking anticyclone should move eastward and weaken, allowing the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies to become the primary steering mechanism. The large-scale models differ in the details of the shortwave troughs in the westerlies that could affect Danielle, and due to this the track guidance becomes somewhat divergent, with the ECMWF calling for a more northward motion than the other guidance. The new forecast track is similar to the previous forecast through 72 h, then is shifted a little to the north of the previous forecast.
The cyclone should remain over 26-27C sea surface temperatures for about 72 h in an environment of light- to moderate westerly shear. This should allow continued strengthening, with the main negative factor being that the mid-level relative humidities near the storm are low. After 72 h, movement over cooler water and increased shear should cause weakening. However, the large-scale models are in good agreement that the cyclone will not undergo extratropical transition before the end of the forecast period. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast and lies near the intensity consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0900Z 37.9N 43.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 37.8N 43.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 37.8N 43.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 37.9N 44.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 38.2N 44.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 38.6N 44.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 39.2N 43.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 41.0N 41.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 42.5N 38.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Sep 2 2022
For the North Atlantic… Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Danielle, located about 925 miles west of the Azores.
- East of the Leeward Islands: Satellite imagery indicates there has been little change in the organization of the area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands during the past several hours. Although environmental conditions remain only marginally conducive, any additional development of the system over the next few days would lead to the formation of a tropical depression. The disturbance is expected to move slowly west-northwestward, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains may occur over portions of the Leeward Islands during the next couple of days, and interests in that area should monitor the progress of the system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent.
- Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
- Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located just northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has increased some over the last several hours, but remains poorly organized. This system is moving into an area of less favorable environmental conditions, and significant development is not anticipated. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
- Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.
