BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2023 MetroDesk Media, LLC) (UPDATED 5 p.m.) — A new system is expected to become a tropical depression by this weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center on Tuesday. The NHC, which continues to monitor Hurricane Lee and Hurricane Margot, says the system — just off the coast of Africa — will continue to grow as it heads west. It’s much too early to determine where it will go or when it will get there, but the likelihood of tropical cyclone development over the next seven days is high.
Here is the Tuesday update from the NHC. We note that we are now in “peak” hurricane season. Systems often start to form in the Caribbean at this point of the season.
Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Sep 12 2023
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC.
… SPECIAL FEATURES…
Major Hurricane Lee is centered near 24.3N 65.9W at 12/1500 UTC or 480 nm south of Bermuda, moving WNW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. An eyewall continues to consolidate near the center of Lee. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is evident within 60 nm in the northern semicircle of Lee, and within 120 nm in the southern semicircle. Seas in excess of 12 ft reach as far as 360 nm from the center of Lee. While the core of the hurricane is forecast to pass west of Bermuda, the large wind field of the storm is likely to bring wind impacts and heavy rainfall to the island by Thu. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Dangerous surf and life- threatening rip currents will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and most of the U. S East Coast through much of the week. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Hurricane Margot is centered near 30.2N 39.4W at 12/1500 UTC or 770 nm SW of the Azores, moving N at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident within 75 nm in the northern quadrant of the hurricane. Seas in excess of 12 ft reach as far as 240 nm of the center of Margot. The hurricane will intensify slightly as it continues to move northward into Wed, before turning more NNW.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website – https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory on Lee and Margot at http://www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
… TROPICAL WAVES…
An Atlantic tropical wave extends from 05N to 17N along 23W, moving west at 10 kt. 1009 mb low pressure is along the wave axis where it intersects the monsoon trough at 12N. No significant convection is noted near this wave.
… MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ…
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W, then continues to 1009 mb low pressure near 12N23W to broad 1010 mb low pressure near 12N32W (AL97 and AL98)to 1010 mb low pressure near 15N49W. A few showers and thunderstorms are noted within 240 to 300 nm in the southwest quadrant of the 1010 mb low pressure near 12N32W.
… GULF OF MEXICO…
A trough extends across the far northwest Gulf off the coast of Louisiana to the central Texas coast. Weak high pressure is developing over the east-central Gulf. This pattern is maintaining light breezes and slight seas across the basin. No significant convection is evident in the Gulf at this time.
For the forecast, the weak ridge will dominate the Gulf waters throughout the forecast period supporting mainly light to gentle winds. Moderate return flow will develop across the W and SW Gulf Thu night. Scattered thunderstorms can be expected across the western Yucatan and eastern Bay of Campeche each late afternoon and evening.
… CARIBBEAN SEA…
Please read the Special Features section about large swell generated by Major Hurricane Lee impacting the northeast Caribbean islands.
The subtropical ridge that is normally north of the region is disrupted by Hurricane Lee, resulting in gentle to moderate easterly breezes across the basin. Northerly swell reaching 5 to 8 ft from Lee is penetrating the Anegada and Mona Passages, with plumes of 4 to 6 ft combined seas extending south of passages across the northeast Caribbean. Combined seas are 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. No significant convection is evident elsewhere.
For the forecast, the northerly swell over the northeast Caribbean will diminish significantly Thu through Fri. Building high pressure north of the area will mean moderate to locally fresh trade winds will return to the Caribbean Fri.
… ATLANTIC OCEAN…
Please see the Special Features section for information about Major Hurricane Lee and Hurricane Margot.
A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated a broad area of 1010 mb low pressure is centered along the monsoon trough over the eastern Atlantic near 12N32W. The NHC was analyzing this feature as two separate invest areas in the eastern Atlantic (AL97 and AL98), but these have been consolidated into one elongated low. A few showers and thunderstorms are evident within 240 to 300 nm to the southwest of the low. Gradual development of the low is expected and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend while the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward at about 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic. There is a low chance of development through the next couple of days, but high chance of development through the next seven days.
Elsewhere, no significant convection is evident across the subtropical or tropical North Atlantic outside of the immediate area near Lee and Margot. Seas in excess of 8 ft due to Lee cover the area between 55W and 75W, and due to Margot are evident north of 23N between 35W and 50W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere with 4 to 6 ft combined seas in mixed swell.
For the forecast west of 55W, Lee will move to 24.8N 66.6W this evening, 25.9N 67.3W Wed morning, 27.4N 67.8W Wed evening, 29.4N 68.2W Thu morning, 31.6N 68.0W Thu evening, and 34.3N 67.4W Fri morning. Lee will change little in intensity as it moves well NW of Bermuda early Sat. Large E to SE swell dominating the waters east of 78W will continue to propagate westward across the Atlc, reaching the Florida coasts this afternoon or evening. Large swell from Lee will dominate the regional waters through Fri.
